GPT-6 released by…?
13 markets · volume $2.12M · ends 2027-01-01
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Markets in this event
| # | Market | Yes | 24h Vol | Liquidity | Ends |
| 1 | Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026? | 0.0% | $0.000000 | $0.000000 | 2026-08-01 |
| 2 | Will GPT-6 be released by December 31? | 0.0% | $0.000000 | $0.000000 | 2026-01-01 |
| 3 | Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026? | 0.0% | $0.000000 | $0.000000 | 2026-04-01 |
| #4 | Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? | 0.0% | $0.000000 | $0.000000 | 2026-09-01 |
| #5 | Will GPT-6 be released by August 7, 2026? | 0.0% | $0.000000 | $0.000000 | 2026-08-08 |
| #6 | Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026? | 0.0% | $0.000000 | $0.000000 | 2026-08-15 |
| #7 | Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026? | 0.0% | $0.000000 | $0.000000 | 2026-08-22 |
| #8 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026? | 86.5% | $115.14K | $22.52K | 2026-09-16 |
| #9 | Will GPT-6 be released by October 31, 2026? | 94.0% | $16.87K | $17.78K | 2026-11-01 |
| #10 | Will GPT-6 be released by November 30, 2026? | 95.9% | $21.62K | $23.76K | 2026-12-01 |
| #11 | Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? | 0.0% | $0.000000 | $0.000000 | 2026-07-01 |
| #12 | Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? | 95.7% | $93.84K | $36.51K | 2027-01-01 |
| #13 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? | 89.5% | $113.08K | $17.50K | 2026-10-01 |
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